The security landscape in Nigeria remains a painful paradox: despite successive administrations making grand pronouncements and launching numerous military operations such as Operation Lafiya Dole, the reality on the ground continues to be defined by escalating violence, mass kidnappings, and the terrifying resilience of non-state armed groups. This stark divergence between political promises and the lived experiences of Nigerians highlights the influence of deeply entrenched systemic failures and powerful external factors that continuously undermine domestic efforts to achieve stability.
The government’s stated approach to tackling insecurity generally focuses on intelligence-led operations, protecting national assets, and community engagement. However, reports from conflict zones, including the Niger Delta, reveal significant gaps in the actual measures adopted. The approach is often characterized by overly militarized strategies that lack adequate oversight and accountability mechanisms. This operational ambiguity frequently leads to human rights violations, including arbitrary arrests, disproportionate use of force, and extrajudicial killings by security forces, which, rather than resolving conflict, only serve to deepen mistrust and perpetuate the cycle of violence. The psychological trauma and forced displacement resulting from high-intensity security operations further exacerbate community displacement and economic hardships.
Internally, the security system suffers from foundational weaknesses. The country’s security disposition is predominantly reactive and often ineffective, largely due to weak intelligence gathering capabilities and the absence of reliable information networks. Compounding this is the issue of political and systemic corruption, which diverts critical resources meant for equipment, training, and soldier welfare. The criminal justice system’s effectiveness is profoundly hampered by inefficiency, lack of resources, poor pay, and pervasive corruption, particularly within the police force. The ratio of police officers to citizens—approximately 1:600—falls significantly below the United Nations-recommended rate, a disparity worsened by the practice of dedicating substantial police numbers to protect wealthy individuals.
Furthermore, the core causes of insecurity are deeply rooted in socio-economic failures: unemployment, poverty, ethno-religious conflicts, and porous borders are all identified as major contributing factors. This environment is further complicated by the country’s economic struggles, where, despite modest growth, poverty has worsened due to high inflation and unemployment, leading to food insecurity for millions. This economic deprivation fuels the recruitment pool for non-state actors, especially in resource-rich but economically deprived regions like the Niger Delta, where conflict over oil and gas resources exacerbates ethnic tensions and social inequalities.
The Nigerian security environment is also inextricably linked to global dynamics. External factors intensify domestic conflict, including the continued operations of international terror networks like Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and the spread of Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. The nature of the security challenges facing Nigeria today is significantly more complex than in the past, with pastoralist-farmer conflicts intensifying in many states and separatist unrest rising in the South-East.
The global unpredictability of stock markets and the search for new non-fossil energy sources also create an unstable economic environment, affecting Nigeria’s oil-dependent revenue and fiscal stability. The inability of the government to achieve revenue projections and the resultant need for borrowing further complicates the funding of necessary security operations and infrastructure repairs. Ultimately, achieving stability requires a comprehensive, holistic security strategy that not only counters external threats but fundamentally addresses internal weaknesses like corruption and economic disparity. As President Tinubu affirmed, while the challenges are tough, the administration remains committed to ensuring security and stability, even as some governors have been criticized for inadequately using their security votes and security reports.